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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-08 21:19:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 081919 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 320 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Updated: Satellite and radar data indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity continues to gradually become better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 115 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. In addition, satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation has become somewhat better defined today. If these development trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or tropical storm later this afternoon, and tropical storm warnings could be required for portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle. After reaching the Florida Panhandle tonight, this system is expected to move across the southeastern United States and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday, where environmental conditions appear unfavorable for additional development. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through Thursday, with localized flooding possible. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brennan/Papin
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-08 19:53:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 17:53:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 15:29:04 GMT
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olaf
Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-08 19:53:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 12:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Olaf was located near 19.1, -107.5 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 4A
2021-09-08 19:53:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081753 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...OLAF STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 107.5W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.5 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion along with an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-08 19:42:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 081742 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized today in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. In addition, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a broad area of low pressure may be forming. The system is expected to move northeastward through this evening, and a tropical depression could form before it reaches the northeastern Gulf coast tonight or early Thursday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States and emerge over the western Atlantic late this week, where environmental conditions appear unfavorable for additional development. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through Thursday, with localized flooding possible. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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