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Tropical Depression Nine Graphics
2021-08-26 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 14:47:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 14:47:01 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-26 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM NORA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Nora was located near 12.5, -100.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-26 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 261446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM NORA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 100.8W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nora. Warnings or additional watches will likely be required later today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 100.8 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A motion toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast to begin overnight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and be very near the coast on Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane by late Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Friday or Friday night. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico today and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-26 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261446 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. WARNINGS OR ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 100.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 100.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Nora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-26 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 261446 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 20(47) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 22(50) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 22(53) 2(55) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) X(27) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 105W 34 X 7( 7) 22(29) 3(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 31(36) 2(38) X(38) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 28(51) 1(52) X(52) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 5(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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