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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-26 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260837 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-26 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 260837 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BEING A TROPICAL STORM... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 100.6W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 540 MI...875 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. Watches will likely be required for a portion of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 100.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a motion toward the northwest or north-northwest on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to pass near but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and then reach hurricane intensity over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico overnight and on Thursday and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 07:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 260537 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. While recent satellite wind data indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 07:30:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 260530 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2021-08-26 04:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 02:44:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 02:44:34 GMT
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