je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 13:14:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 261114 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 11:02:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 260902 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 505 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the system south of Jamaica. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located less than 200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Cayman Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be required later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2021-08-26 10:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 08:41:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 08:41:05 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-26 10:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260838 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that convection is increasing near the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, but it is occurring in bands that are not showing a lot of curvature at this time. Satellite intensity estimates are currently 35 kt from SAB and 30 kt from TAFB, and the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus techniques are also in the 30-35 kt range. In addition, earlier scatterometer data showed 25-30 kt winds, although there was no data close to the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt. The cyclone is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken this ridge during the next couple of days, with the cyclone moving northwestward to north-northwestward as a result. The track guidance continues to show a motion close to the coast of southwestern Mexico between 48-72 h, and the GFS and Canadian models on the eastern side of the guidance show a landfall in Mexico. The ECMWF model is farther to the left and keeps the system offshore of Mexico, while the UKMET is between these extremes and keeps the center offshore of mainland Mexico before taking the system near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The forecast track is similar to the previous track, following the consensus models in keeping the center offshore of mainland Mexico before coming near Baja California Sur. However, there remains above average uncertainty in the track forecast, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of the system and potential changes to the forecast. The depression is currently being affected by northeasterly vertical shear, which is likely to persist for another 24 h. After that time, conditions appear favorable for strengthening if the center stays far enough offshore. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The 48-120 h portion of the forecast again has lower than average confidence due to the possibility of land interaction. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday or Saturday night. While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 12.0N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-26 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BEING A TROPICAL STORM... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 12.0, -100.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Sites : [297] [298] [299] [300] [301] [302] [303] [304] [305] [306] [307] [308] [309] [310] [311] [312] [313] [314] [315] [316] next »