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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-17 04:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 170241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse over the southeastern portion of Henri's circulation. Although the tropical cyclone is still being affected by dry-air entrainment and light-to-moderate shear, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are a little higher than before, and a blend of those estimates yields an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory. Henri is forecast to remain over SSTs of 28-29C throughout the forecast period, but the mid-level relative humidity is forecast to remain fairly dry, which is likely to only support gradual strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly shear is anticipated, and that is likely to stop further strengthening. As mentioned in the previous advisory, given the small size of Henri, the tropical cyclone is likely to be more susceptible to this shear and it is possible that Henri weakens more than indicated below by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various statistical aids, and the CTCI and HMNI models. Less weight is again placed on the HWRF model, which remains quite aggressive in strengthening Henri over the next several days despite the expected increase in shear and dry mid-level environment. Henri is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move in a counterclockwise motion over the next several days as it moves around a mid-tropospheric high that is forecast to shift eastward over the western Atlantic. This motion should take Henri south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. By 72 hours, the storm is expected to reach the western extent of the ridge and turn northward, and then northeastward by the end of the forecast period. There is still some spread in the guidance as to when and how sharp the turn will be. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 30.7N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 30.4N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 30.3N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 30.5N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 31.3N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 32.8N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-17 04:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 170241 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 3(13) 5(18) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-17 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 16 the center of Henri was located near 30.7, -63.3 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-08-17 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 170241 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN COAST EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 73.8W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 73.8W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.6N 75.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.1N 78.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 55NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.7N 82.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.3N 85.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.0N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 21.6N 91.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.2N 95.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 73.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-17 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 170241 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...HENRI A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 63.3W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 63.3 West. Henri is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion should continue through Tuesday morning. A turn toward the west is is forecast by Tuesday night, and a slightly faster westward motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward only up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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