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Tropical Storm Fred Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2021-08-16 23:18:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 21:18:21 GMT
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Tropical Depression Grace Graphics
2021-08-16 22:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 20:53:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 21:30:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-16 22:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 20:53:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 21:36:40 GMT
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-08-16 22:48:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 162048 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Grace may have regained tropical storm status just before the center moved across the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican Republic around midday. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters measured peak 925-mb winds of 45 kt very near the coast, which would equate to an intensity right at the threshold of tropical storm. Since then, however, land interaction has likely weakened these winds, and Grace is still estimated to be a 30-kt depression. The center appears to have moved back over water just to the south of the Haitian coast. Grace has been moving a little slower today, possibly due to interaction with the terrain of Hispaniola, and the initial motion is estimated to be 285/11 kt. A mid-level high centered over the western Atlantic is forecast to build westward over the southeastern United States and northern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days. This pattern should keep Grace on a westward to west-northwestward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period, moving across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The most significant model trends are on days 4 and 5, when many of the track models are indicating a slight west-southwest bend as the cyclone approaches mainland Mexico. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward at most forecast times, but that may be within the noise level of typical model run-to-run variability. Once the center of Grace moves away from Hispaniola tomorrow, the deep, warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and relatively light deep-layer shear should be conducive for strengthening. Model data suggest that some mid-level shear could come into play at times, so it's not a sure bet that conditions will be ideal for significant strengthening. Partly for that reason, the NHC intensity forecast is near or just below the intensity consensus. However, even this new forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast, and many of the models indicate that Grace could be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula in about 60 hours. After passing the Yucatan Peninsula, additional strengthening is likely, and the new forecast now explicitly shows Grace reaching hurricane intensity over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola this evening and tonight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.9N 72.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.3N 74.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR SW TIP OF HAITI 24H 17/1800Z 18.9N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 19.6N 80.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR CAYMAN ISLANDS 48H 18/1800Z 20.2N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 20.9N 86.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR YUCATAN COAST 72H 19/1800Z 21.6N 89.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 22.4N 95.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 22.4N 98.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-08-16 22:48:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 932 FONT12 KNHC 162048 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) 1(25) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 1(37) X(37) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 27(40) X(40) X(40) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) KINGSTON 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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