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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-17 07:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 05:31:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 03:35:02 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-17 07:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Aug 17 the center of Henri was located near 30.6, -63.5 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-08-17 07:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 170531 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HENRI MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 63.5W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 63.5 West. Henri is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion should continue through this morning. A turn toward the west is forecast by tonight, and a slightly faster westward motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward only up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters today, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-17 06:57:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 170456 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Corrected statement in movement section Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse over the southeastern portion of Henri's circulation. Although the tropical cyclone is still being affected by dry-air entrainment and light-to-moderate shear, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are a little higher than before, and a blend of those estimates yields an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory. Henri is forecast to remain over SSTs of 28-29C throughout the forecast period, but the mid-level relative humidity is forecast to remain fairly dry, which is likely to only support gradual strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly shear is anticipated, and that is likely to stop further strengthening. As mentioned in the previous advisory, given the small size of Henri, the tropical cyclone is likely to be more susceptible to this shear and it is possible that Henri weakens more than indicated below by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various statistical aids, and the CTCI and HMNI models. Less weight is again placed on the HWRF model, which remains quite aggressive in strengthening Henri over the next several days despite the expected increase in shear and dry mid-level environment. Henri is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move in a clockwise motion over the next several days as it moves around a mid-tropospheric high that is forecast to shift eastward over the western Atlantic. This motion should take Henri south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. By 72 hours, the storm is expected to reach the western extent of the ridge and turn northward, and then northeastward by the end of the forecast period. There is still some spread in the guidance as to when and how sharp the turn will be. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 30.7N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 30.4N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 30.3N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 30.5N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 31.3N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 32.8N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-08-17 04:48:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 778 WTNT41 KNHC 170248 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The center of Fred has continued to move inland across the Florida Panhandle this evening, and is now located over extreme southeastern Alabama. Doppler velocities from NWS Doppler radars have gradually decreased and that data, along with recent surface observations, indicate that Fred is now a 35-kt tropical storm. Weakening should continue over the next several hours and Fred is expected to weaken to a tropical depression overnight. Additional weakening will occur on Tuesday while the circulation moves inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians. The global model guidance indicates that Fred's circulation will open into a trough of low pressure on Wednesday near the central Appalachians. Fred is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The cyclone should move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed between a mid-tropospheric ridge over the western Atlantic and a weak mid-level trough over the east-central United States. The new NHC track forecast is lies near the middle of the tightly packed dynamical model guidance. Although Fred is weakening, it is expected to bring flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, will continue over inland sections of the eastern Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 31.2N 85.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1200Z 32.9N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 35.5N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 38.5N 81.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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