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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 15A

2021-08-17 07:47:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170547 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... ...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 74.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Watches may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 74.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and then move between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti early this morning, and in Jamaica this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area this afternoon and evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through today. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. Over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected Wednesday into Thursday, which may lead to areas of flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-08-17 07:43:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 170543 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 16 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Linda, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)

2021-08-17 07:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF FRED MOVING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 the center of Fred was located near 31.7, -85.2 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 30A

2021-08-17 07:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170542 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED MOVING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 85.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF EUFAULA ALABAMA ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue early this morning. A motion toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin by late morning and continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia today, across the southern Appalachian Mountains tonight, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression later this morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment today. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Florida Gulf coast may remain elevated throughout the high tide cycle and subside thereafter. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts will continue over inland portions of southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the eastern Florida Panhandle for a few more hours. SURF: Swells generated by Fred affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should subside overnight. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible overnight across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will shift northward into parts of northeastern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern Virginia today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Fred Graphics

2021-08-17 07:42:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 05:42:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 03:23:09 GMT

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