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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-17 04:44:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170244 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 IR and microwave imagery during the past few hours indicate that Grace's convective organization has improved a little since this afternoon. However, it is currently unknown if that has translated to a better-defined surface wind field. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 00Z supported tropical storm strength, and it is possible Grace has redeveloped sustained winds of that magnitude. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Grace in a few hours, so it seems prudent to avoid making a big change before the plane gets there. Grace is therefore conservatively maintained as a 30 kt depression for this advisory. Regardless of Grace's exact intensity right now, the immediate threat is still torrential rainfall across Hispaniola overnight, which will likely cause severe flooding in some locations. The initial motion estimate is 280/12 kt. Confidence in the track forecast has increased considerably during the past 24 h and the track model spread is low. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days, which should keep Grace on a generally westward or west-northwestward track through day 5. Once Grace moves away from Haiti, it should remain over water until it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Very little change was made to the official track forecast, which is based primarily on the multi-model consensus TVCN. Now that Grace is forecast to avoid all major land masses for the next couple of days, all of the intensity guidance calls for some strengthening to occur. That said, with the exception of the COAMPS-TC model, the intensity guidance as a whole shows a slower rate of strengthening than it did 6 h ago. The NHC forecast is now very near the IVCN intensity consensus throughout the forecast, including over the Gulf of Mexico where it continues to show Grace reaching hurricane strength. Despite the slightly lower guidance for this forecast, it still can not be ruled out that Grace will reach hurricane strength over the western Caribbean. When the hurricane hunter aircraft reaches Grace in a couple hours and provides more information about the current organization of cyclone, we should have a better feel for how quickly it could intensify prior to reaching the coast of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola overnight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 18.2N 73.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.6N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 19.1N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 19.7N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 20.3N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 21.0N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/0000Z 21.6N 91.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 21/0000Z 22.2N 95.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 22.5N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-17 04:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... ...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Grace was located near 18.2, -73.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-17 04:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170244 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... ...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 73.8W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the province of Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Watches may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast early Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 73.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and then move between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica on Tuesday. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands Tuesday night and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Further strengthening is anticipated before Grace approaches the coast of Mexico in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti overnight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. Over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected Wednesday into Thursday, which may lead to areas of flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-17 04:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 170244 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 25(40) 1(41) X(41) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 18(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) KINGSTON 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-17 04:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 02:42:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 03:35:02 GMT
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