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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-17 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 170241 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 63.3W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 63.3W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 63.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.4N 64.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.3N 67.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.5N 69.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.3N 70.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 32.8N 69.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 35.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 63.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-17 01:52:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 162352 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fred, located inland over the Florida Panhandle, on Tropical Depression Grace, located near the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Henri, located over 100 miles southeast of Bermuda. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Henri are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Henri are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Grace Graphics
2021-08-17 01:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 23:51:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 21:30:50 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-17 01:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ...THREAT OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Grace was located near 18.0, -73.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 14A
2021-08-17 01:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 162351 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...GRACE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ...THREAT OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 73.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are possible tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti tonight. It will then move between Jamaica and southeastern Cuba on Tuesday, near the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to regain tropical storm status on Tuesday. Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti through tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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