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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-10 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...KEVIN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CLARION ISLAND OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 112.9W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 112.9 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. A weakening trend is expected to begin by Wednesday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently measured by a Mexican Navy weather observation site on Clarion Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-10 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2021-08-10 01:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 23:31:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 22:55:49 GMT
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-10 01:31:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 092331 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located just east of the Leeward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 1A
2021-08-10 01:30:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 092330 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 ...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THERE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF DOMINICA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Dominica * Saba and St. Eustatius * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and the entire northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 60.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across the southern Leeward Islands later tonight, pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or two and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm overnight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico...2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Over the northern Windward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Over the Dominican Republic...3 to 6 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Lesser Antilles later tonight, and are also possible within the watch area in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning early Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to spread across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday and across portions of Hispaniola on Wednesday, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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