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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 13:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
932 ABPZ20 KNHC 091135 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Aug 9 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days. This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph through midweek, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-09 10:37:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 08:37:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 08:37:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-09 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 320 WTPZ41 KNHC 090836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin is a sheared tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery indicates the low-level center lies near the edge of the dense overcast, which has a sharp border in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. The associated deep convection is displaced well to the southwest of Kevin's partially exposed center. Recent scatterometer data only show 25 to 30-kt winds near the center, but the full southwestern quadrant where the most intense convection is occurring was not sampled. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the subjective final Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. This estimate could still be generous, however. The cyclone has turned west-northwestward during the past 12 h, and its estimated motion is now 290/6 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged, as Kevin is expected to move west-northwestward for most of the forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit northward again this cycle, following the trend of the latest multi-model consensus aids. Although Kevin has been embedded within a favorable thermodynamic environment, 15 to 20 kt of northeasterly shear has thus far limited its rate of strengthening. This shear is expected to persist for the next couple of days, so it seems likely that Kevin will continue to struggle intensifying, despite warm SSTs and a moist, unstable environment. By the time the vertical wind shear diminishes, Kevin will have gained enough latitude that the underlying SSTs will be unfavorable for further strengthening. The new intensity guidance is much lower than previous cycles, and so the latest NHC intensity forecast has been reduced by 5 to 10 kt at all forecast hours. Thus, Kevin is no longer forecast to become a hurricane. By day 5, the system is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low over sub-22 deg C waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.3N 110.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-08-09 10:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090835 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 6( 6) 64(70) 4(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 30(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 2(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-09 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SLIGHTLY WEAKER KEVIN IS STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 9 the center of Kevin was located near 16.3, -110.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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