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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-09 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...SLIGHTLY WEAKER KEVIN IS STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 110.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 110.9 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A little strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, followed by a slow weakening trend thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-09 10:34:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 274 WTPZ21 KNHC 090834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 07:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 090531 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure system located about 380 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by late tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an elongated low pressure area located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 07:23:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 090523 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days. This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph through midweek, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-09 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 02:34:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Aug 2021 02:34:55 GMT
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