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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 01:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 082345 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure system located about 400 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an elongated low pressure system located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 01:23:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 082323 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kevin, located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next two or three days. This system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph during the next several days, parallel to and offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-08 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 20:36:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Aug 2021 20:36:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-08 22:35:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021 The earlier burst of deep convection almost completely dissipated, leaving the core of the low-level circulation briefly exposed. However, over the past couple of hours new convection has redeveloped over the center of Kevin. This disruption, possibly aided by moderate northeasterly shear, put a temporary pause on the cyclone's strengthening. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased to 3.0 (45 kt), while the CI-values remain at 3.5 (55 kt). Based on a blend of these numbers, the estimated initial advisory intensity remains 50 kt. Kevin is forecast to remain over warm waters while embedded in a moist and unstable atmospheric environment for the next 48 h or so. The main inhibiting factor for intensification is the persistent vertical wind shear, which is forecast to persist for the next few days. Kevin is forecast by all of the intensity guidance to overcome this shear, and slowly strengthen over the next two days. After 60 h, Kevin should begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment, which should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. By 120 h, the system is forecast to be over waters of less than 23 degrees C, likely causing the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection. The only notable change in the latest NHC forecast from the previous one was to introduce the mention of the system as post-tropical by day 5. Otherwise, the latest forecast remains near the IVCN consensus aid. Kevin continues to move westward, or 270/7 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. A mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge that is currently steering Kevin westward. This should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward overnight and this west-northwestward heading is then expected to continue for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest track guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.0N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 19.0N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 19.8N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 23.0N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-08-08 22:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 082031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 08 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 12 3(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 29(33) 44(77) 7(84) X(84) X(84) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 7(46) X(46) X(46) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 25(31) 13(44) 1(45) X(45) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 23(49) 1(50) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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