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Summary for Tropical Storm Hilda (EP3/EP082021)
2021-07-31 16:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILDA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...ALMOST A HURRICANE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 the center of Hilda was located near 13.7, -116.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hilda Public Advisory Number 4
2021-07-31 16:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 311449 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hilda Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 ...HILDA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 116.7W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 116.7 West. Hilda is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady or rapid strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with Hilda expected to become a hurricane later today. Some weakening is anticipated to begin on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-07-31 16:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 311449 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 116.7W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 116.7W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 118.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.4N 119.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.1N 124.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.9N 125.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.3N 132.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-07-31 16:48:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 14:48:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 14:48:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-07-31 16:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 798 WTPZ44 KNHC 311447 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 The depression has become increasingly elongated west-to-east since the previous advisory. Although deep convection has increased somewhat near the center, with cloud tops now colder than -70C, the convection isn't organized very well. The initial intensity is being maintained at 25 kt until new ASCAT data arrives this afternoon. The initial motion estimate is 270/04 kt. The latest NHC track guidance is in decent agreement on the depression moving in a slow westward direction for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion as the ridge to north of the cyclone weakens slightly. By around 72 hours, some binary interaction between the depression and rapidly strengthening Tropical Storm Hilda, located about 650 nmi to the east, is expected. However, the degree of interaction varies widely among the models. The GFS is the most extreme and takes the depression northward on days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF being the weakest, showing little if any interaction and keeps the cyclone moving generally westward through 120 h; the other global and regional models lie somewhere in between these two extremes. For now, the new official NHC track forecast was only nudged slightly northward, and lies inside the southern edge of the guidance envelope near the TVCE consensus model. The depression's future intensity and existence depends heavily on the track over the next 5 days. A more westward motion would keep the cyclone over warmer water and in a better upper-level flow regime. In contrast, a sharp northward motion, as per the GFS solution, would place the system over colder water and within strong vertical wind shear. Another negative factor is the effect of intensifying Hilda to the east, which has started to draw in the southerly/southwesterly cross-equatorial inflow away from TD-9E. This deflection of the low-level flow eastward away from the depression could result in the cyclone's cyclone getting stretched out/elongated east-to-west even further, which would induce weakening or even dissipation of the cyclone. For now, the previous intensity forecast is being maintained for this advisory until the track model guidance comes into better agreement, and the interactive effects of Tropical Storm Hilda become clearer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 12.1N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 12.1N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 12.3N 130.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 12.5N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 12.8N 133.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 13.8N 137.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 15.5N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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