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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2021-08-02 10:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 08:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 09:29:57 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-02 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 439 WTPZ45 KNHC 020837 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 The depression has not become any better organized overnight. In fact, the earlier cluster of deep convection that was located to the west of the center has weakened with the center becoming farther exposed to the northeast of a new burst of convection that has recently developed. Unfortunately the tropical cyclone was located within the gap of the polar-orbiting ASCAT instrument overnight so there were no scatterometer data to help ascertain the depression's intensity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB ranged from 30 to 35 kt, and since there has been no overall change in organization, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression has a short window of opportunity today in which to become a tropical storm, however increasing shear and cool waters along the forecast track should end that possibility by early tonight. Weakening is expected to begin shortly thereafter as the system moves into aforementioned hostile environmental conditions, and the cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low by late Tuesday, and dissipate on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and follows the global model guidance in calling for dissipation in 48-60 h. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged as the cyclone should move west-northwestward along the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. As the system weakens, it is likely to slow down and turn westward within the low-level flow around Hilda located to its southwest. The NHC track prediction remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and little modification to the previous advisory was needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-02 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 2 the center of Ten-E was located near 18.0, -113.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-02 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 020836 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 113.4W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 113.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a short-lived tropical storm later today. Weakening is expected to begin tonight or Tuesday morning, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-08-02 10:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 020836 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 51 4(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ISLA CLARION 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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