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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-31 19:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 311738 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hilda, located about 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Depression Nine-E, located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. Continued gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days before environmental conditions become less conducive for development. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-31 19:23:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 311723 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-07-31 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 14:50:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 14:50:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-07-31 16:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 311449 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 18 72(90) 6(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 120W 50 1 47(48) 24(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 120W 64 X 20(20) 22(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 23(30) 33(63) 2(65) X(65) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 7(21) X(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 15(32) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-07-31 16:49:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 029 WTPZ43 KNHC 311449 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Hilda is strengthening quickly this morning. Satellite images show an eye feature trying to form, and convection has deepened and become increasingly symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak estimates supported raising the initial intensity to 55 kt at 12Z, and since Hilda continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 60 kt for this advisory. This makes Hilda just below hurricane strength. The current favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs should continue to allow Hilda to intensify during the next day or so. In addition, given that Hilda now has a tight inner core, rapid intensification (RI) is a decent possibility, and the SHIPS RI index now shows a 30 percent chance of that occurring during the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, decreasing moisture and progressively cooler SSTs should end the strengthening trend and gradually cause weakening during the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is above than the previous one in the short term and it lies at the high end of the model guidance. The long term forecast is largely similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Hilda is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A subtropical ridge should keep the storm on a general west-northwest heading during the next several days, but there could be some interaction with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and a low pressure area to the east that could cause slow downs and wobbles in the future track. There is a fair amount of spread among the models, especially at the longer range forecast times, but the latest consensus models are right on top of the previous track. Therefore, the NHC track forecast is largely just an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.7N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.0N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.4N 119.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 15.5N 122.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 16.1N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 16.9N 125.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.3N 132.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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