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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-31 13:04:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
602 ABNT20 KNHC 311104 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hilda Graphics
2021-07-31 10:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 08:38:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 09:23:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-07-31 10:37:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 08:37:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 31 Jul 2021 09:30:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-07-31 10:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 310836 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hilda Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 A prominent convective band now wraps about halfway around the southeast to west side of Hilda's center, and another band is taking shape to the north of the center. With the improved organization, Dvorak estimates increased to a consensus T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and a 0520 UTC ASCAT-B pass confirmed that indeed maximum winds are about 45 kt. This is being set as Hilda's initial intensity, although it could be a little conservative since objective ADT estimates have trended higher than that since 0600 UTC. A mid-tropospheric ridge currently extends from northern Mexico westward across the Baja California peninsula to about 120W and is steering Hilda west-northwestward at 290/12 kt. Although this ridge is expected to build westward and keep Hilda on a west-northwestward course, potential interactions with Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and another low pressure area to the east could cause the storm to slow down over the next 3 days and oscillate a bit around that general heading. There is slightly more spread among the track models than is typical, with the HWRF a notable southern outlier and the GFS and HMON models having some of the faster solutions due to greater interaction with T.D. Nine-E. That being said, the overall track guidance has trended a little slower and farther south on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has therefore been adjusted in that direction from the previous forecast, lying close to the TVCE multi-model consensus but not nearly as far south as the HCCA consensus aid. Hilda is currently in a light-shear regime and over sea surface temperatures of about 29 degrees Celsius, so continued strengthening is anticipated in the short term with Hilda likely to reach hurricane strength by tonight or early Sunday. However, global models are suggesting that the shear may increase out of the east during the next 24 hours, and then Hilda will be near cooler waters in 2 to 3 days. Therefore, Hilda is likely to reach its peak intensity in about 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast at that time is near the upper end of the guidance suite. Hilda is expected to move over even cooler waters after 48 hours, which should cause a gradual weakening trend through the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 13.3N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 13.6N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.1N 119.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.6N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 15.1N 122.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 127.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 18.9N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-07-31 10:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 310836 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 31 2021 The depression remains poorly organized this morning. Deep convection remains limited, and recent scatterometer data show that the circulation is elongated from east to west. The initial intensity is maintained at 25 kt, which could be generous based on the latest ASCAT data. As mentioned in the previous advisory, the confidence in the track and intensity forecast for the depression is quite low due to the current lack of organization of the system, and the potential for some interaction with Tropical Storm Hilda located to its northeast. The ASCAT data was helpful in pinpointing the center location overnight, and the latest fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving just south of due west or 265/5 kt. The track guidance generally agrees on a slow west or west-southwest heading over the next 12-24 hours followed by a west or west-northwest motion through 48-60 hours. After that time, the track guidance begins to diverge with the GFS showing a binary interaction of the depression and Hilda by days 4 and 5. Most of the remainder of the guidance keeps enough separation between the systems that the depression continues generally moving westward or west-northwestward through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is once again close to the various multi-model consensus aids, and is slightly slower than the previous official forecast. Although the depression is located over warm water, moderate easterly shear and dry air entrainment have prevented strengthening since genesis occurred. Given the current poor organization of the system and the marginal environment, only slow strengthening is indicated over the next few days. Another plausible scenario is that the system fails to produce organization deep convection within the next 12 to 24 hours, and it degenerates into a broad low pressure area along the ITCZ. Given this uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly and is in best agreement with the IVCN intensity aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 12.3N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 12.2N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 12.1N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 12.2N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 12.5N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 12.8N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 13.1N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 13.7N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 14.5N 138.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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