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Tropical Depression Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-07-20 22:47:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 750 WTPZ41 KNHC 202047 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Felicia Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 Convection once again has mostly dissipated near the low-level circulation of Felicia. Without any organized deep convection, the clock is now ticking on its remaining lifespan as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that was recently received at 1709 UTC had a peak wind retrieval of 32-kt just north of the center. Given the lack of convection since that time, as well as the latest Dvorak estimates decreasing further, Felicia is being downgraded to a tropical depression at this time with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. Further weakening is anticipated as Felicia remains in a very dry, stable environment. The depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in the next 12 hours and open up into a trough by the end of the week, well south of Hawaii. The latest estimated motion is now to the west-southwest at 255/14 kt. The track philosophy has changed little this advisory as a large subtropical ridge will continue to steer Felicia to the west-southwest over the last few days of its life. The latest NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous forecast track as the guidance remains tightly clustered along the forecast track. On this track, Felicia will be crossing into the central Pacific basin within the next few hours. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Felicia. Future information on this system can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC...under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1 ...WMO header WTPA21 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.3N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 14.8N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0600Z 13.7N 147.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z 13.2N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2021-07-20 22:45:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 202045 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-20 22:44:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FELICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... As of 11:00 AM HST Tue Jul 20 the center of Felicia was located near 15.3, -139.4 with movement WSW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Felicia Public Advisory Number 27
2021-07-20 22:44:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 202044 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Felicia Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 ...FELICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 139.4W ABOUT 1075 MI...1735 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Felicia was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 139.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast and Felicia is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on Felicia can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Felicia Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-07-20 22:43:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 202043 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 139.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 139.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 138.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.8N 141.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.7N 147.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.2N 150.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 139.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1 ...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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