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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-07-20 04:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 423 WTPZ41 KNHC 200237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 500 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia continues to rapidly weaken over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of around 25 deg C and within a cooler and drier air mass. After an earlier burst of strong convection, all that remains of it is limited to the northeastern quadrant along with cloud tops now having warmed to -55C to -60C. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 45 kt, and that is the intensity assigned for this advisory. Additional weakening is forecast through the remainder of the 72-h forecast period due to the cyclone remaining over SSTs near 25C, westerly vertical wind shear increasing to more than 30 kt by 24 hours, and continued entrainment of drier and cooler low- to mid-level air. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. The initial motion estimate remains a little south of due west, or 265/13 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to steer Felicia west-southwestward to westward over the next few days until the small cyclone dissipates by 96 hours, if not sooner. Felicia will likely cross into the Central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies between the tightly packed TVCE and NOAA-HCCA track forecast models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 16.1N 134.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.9N 136.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.3N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 14.2N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1200Z 13.6N 147.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0000Z 13.0N 150.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2021-07-20 04:35:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 200235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 0300 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Depression Guillermo Best Track Information (.shp)
2021-07-20 04:35:48| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 02:35:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression Guillermo Best Track Information (.kmz)
2021-07-20 04:35:48| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 02:35:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression Guillermo Forecast Information (.shp)
2021-07-20 04:35:48| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 02:35:48 GMT
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