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Tropical Depression Guillermo Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-07-20 10:44:04| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021
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Tropical Storm Felicia Graphics
2021-07-20 10:37:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 08:37:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 09:22:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-07-20 10:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 Felicia is a rapidly weakening tropical cyclone. The system has been reduced to a low- to mid-level cloud swirl in satellite imagery, with no deep and organized convection near its center since about 0100 UTC. A couple of recent scatterometer passes show several 35-kt vectors in the northern semicircle of the compact cyclone, which supports lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt with this advisory. The cyclone is moving just south of due west, or 265/13 kt. It is expected to turn slightly more west-southwestward later today and maintain this heading for the next several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northwest. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one and lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, Felicia will move into the central Pacific basin by Tuesday night. Felicia is embedded within a dry and stable airmass over SSTs of around 25 deg C, and the cyclone will move under the influence of strong northwesterly vertical wind shear during the next day or so. Thus, it appears very unlikely that Felicia will be able to sustain any organized convection near its center, even as it moves deeper into the tropics over slightly warmer SSTs. The official NHC intensity forecast follows the multi-model consensus and weakens Felicia to a tropical depression in 12 h, and to a remnant low by 36 h. However, this could occur even sooner based on recent trends and the latest model-simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough by Thursday night as it passes well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 14.9N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0600Z 13.7N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1800Z 13.2N 149.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Felicia (EP1/EP062021)
2021-07-20 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FELICIA CONTINUES WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Jul 19 the center of Felicia was located near 15.9, -136.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Felicia Public Advisory Number 25
2021-07-20 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 200836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 19 2021 ...FELICIA CONTINUES WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 136.3W ABOUT 1265 MI...2030 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 136.3 West. Felicia is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Felicia is forecast to become a tropical depression on Tuesday and degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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