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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-07-01 13:40:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 011139 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Thu Jul 1 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-01 10:55:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Jul 2021 08:55:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Jul 2021 08:55:12 GMT
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elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-07-01 10:54:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010854 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021 The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern became a little better organized overnight, with convective banding features becoming more evident over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined to the west of the system, and restricted over the eastern semicircle. The current intensity is set at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, and just slightly above the maximum winds from an earlier scatterometer pass, making the cyclone a tropical storm. Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020. The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial motion is around 275/22 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated to the north of the storm, and this feature should steer the system quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. There is significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5. The ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K. Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and within the latter suite of guidance. However the discrepancy in the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual. Some intensification is likely for the next day or two, since Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, fairly low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, the fast forward motion could result in some decoupling of the low- and higher-level circulation which would limit strengthening. Also, the potential interaction of the storm with the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation somewhat. Therefore the official intensity forecast, like the previous one, is quite conservative and on the lower end of the guidance suite. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall from the system will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 9.4N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 10.3N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 11.7N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 13.2N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 14.9N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 21.0N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 24.5N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-01 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ELSA... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Jul 1 the center of Elsa was located near 9.4, -48.8 with movement W at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-07-01 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 010853 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC THU JUL 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 2(34) X(34) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) X(45) X(45) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AVES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 19(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 36(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 62(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 57(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 X 3( 3) 68(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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