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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga (AT2/AL172019)
2019-10-26 04:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OLGA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 the center of Olga was located near 27.8, -92.2 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Public Advisory Number 3
2019-10-26 04:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260251 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 ...OLGA BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 92.2W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings associated with this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). Olga is forecast to move quickly northward to north-northeastward on Saturday and then turn northeastward late Saturday or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will move up the Mississippi Valley tomorrow and toward the Great Lakes later this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected after the cyclone moves over land Saturday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft and surface observations over the northern Gulf of Mexico is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds associated with Olga and its remnants should spread over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The post-tropical cyclone, along with rainfall ahead of the system along and north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast, is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley through Saturday morning. These rains may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Tennessee Valley. COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast. Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for additional information. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Saturday morning across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and western Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Additional information about heavy rainfall and wind gusts can be found in storm summary products issued by the Weather Prediction Center at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-10-26 04:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 260251 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 21 13(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MORGAN CITY LA 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LAFAYETTE LA 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) NEW IBERIA LA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMERON LA 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-10-26 04:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 260250 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR INFORMATION ON THE NON-TROPICAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 92.2W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 450SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 92.2W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 31.8N 90.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 38.0N 88.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 43.5N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 92.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Graphics
2019-10-20 00:56:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 22:56:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 22:56:06 GMT
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