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Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Graphics
2019-11-17 15:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 14:33:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 15:24:16 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-11-17 15:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171432 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 Raymond has degenerated into a remnant low with 25-kt winds. Satellite images indicate that the circulation is elongated and that the thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of minimum pressure due to very strong wind shear. In addition, observations from the Mexican Navy automatic station at Isla Socorro which is located near Raymond indicate that winds are between 15 and 20 kt. The low is moving northward around 14 kt, but this motion is uncertain since the circulation is elongated and poorly defined. Raymond's remnants are expected to move northward and then north-northwestward and eventually become absorbed by a large developing trough west of the Baja California peninsula in about 24 to 36 hours. The combination of the remnants of Raymond and the developing trough west of the peninsula will bring heavy rains into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula over the next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. This is the last NHC advisory on Raymond. For additional information about the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.1N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 23.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-11-17 15:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 171432 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 1500 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond (EP5/EP202019)
2019-11-17 15:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAYMOND DEGENERATED INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Nov 17 the center of Raymond was located near 19.1, -111.1 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Public Advisory Number 11
2019-11-17 15:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 056 WTPZ35 KNHC 171432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 ...RAYMOND DEGENERATED INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 111.1W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 111.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond's remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to dissipate late Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Avila
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