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Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Graphics
2018-11-06 03:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Nov 2018 02:41:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Nov 2018 03:21:50 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-11-06 03:39:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060239 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 Deep convection has now remained absent in Xavier for about twelve hours. Given the hostile southwesterly vertical shear, dry mid-levels, and only lukewarm waters to be encountered by the system during the next couple of days, it is unlikely that persistent deep convection will make a comeback. Therefore, Xavier is now considered to be a post-tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory to be issued by the National Hurricane Center. Despite the lack of thunderstorms, Xavier is showing a well- pronounced, though small, low-level circulation in the last few visible images. Peak winds in the system are around 40 kt, assuming that some spindown has occurred since the 45 kt observed from the ASCAT scatterometer several hours ago. Continued gradual weakening is very likely and Xavier is anticipated to become a remnant low by Tuesday night and dissipate in about three days. The post-tropical cyclone is moving west-northwestward at around 5 kt. The system should turn toward the west or west-southwest during the next couple of days until dissipation, under the influence of a lower tropospheric ridge north of Xavier. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 19.1N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-11-06 03:38:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060238 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP252018 0300 UTC TUE NOV 06 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 13(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier (EP5/EP252018)
2018-11-06 03:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...XAVIER DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 8:00 PM MST Mon Nov 5 the center of Xavier was located near 19.1, -107.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Public Advisory Number 14
2018-11-06 03:38:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 ...XAVIER DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 107.5W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Xavier was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). The system is expected to turn toward the west or west- southwest at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Xavier is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico this evening and should subside on Tuesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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