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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (AT2/AL072018)
2018-09-02 22:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 the center of Seven was located near 22.7, -77.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-02 22:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 760 WTNT32 KNHC 022042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 77.3W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM NNE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast from the Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 77.3 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression Monday morning and a tropical storm by Monday evening. Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday morning. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flash flooding. The disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-02 22:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 304 WTNT22 KNHC 022042 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 77.3W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 77.3W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 76.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N 79.3W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.1N 81.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 26.6N 84.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.0N 87.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.6N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 33.0N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 34.0N 95.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 77.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2018-08-31 19:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 17:32:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 15:22:06 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062018)
2018-08-31 19:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 31 the center of Six was located near 13.8, -23.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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