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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (AT2/AL072018)
2018-09-03 01:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 the center of Seven was located near 23.0, -77.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 1A
2018-09-03 01:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 303 WTNT32 KNHC 022347 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 77.8W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the southern portion of the Florida peninsula Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday and a tropical storm Monday night. Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be possible Monday across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flash flooding. The disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-02 22:46:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 713 WTNT42 KNHC 022046 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave that the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has become better organized today. Strong winds previously associated with an upper- level trough just west of the system have decreased significantly during the day, and the upper-level flow across the disturbance has become more anticyclonic. Earlier scatterometer wind data indicated that the system does not yet have a closed surface circulation. However, the same data indicate that winds of 25-28 kt exist outside of thunderstorm activity, with some higher gusts likely present. The initial intensity is being set at a conservative 25 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/13 kt. The global models are in excellent agreement that the strong subtropical ridge to the north of the disturbance will remain entrenched across the southeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states throughout the forecast period. This flow pattern should keep the system moving in a west- northwestward to northwestward motion until landfall occurs along the central Gulf coast in 60-72 hours. The model tracks are tightly packed, so the NHC official forecast track essentially lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, and reach the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The aforementioned upper-level anticyclonic has been steadily increasing during the day today, with weak cirrus outflow now occurring in all quadrants. The disturbance is forecast to move across the very warm waters of the Gulfstream late tonight and early Monday morning where local diabatic heating should enhance deep convection near the mid-level circulation, causing the vortex column to build downward to the surface. Once a closed surface circulation develops, the combination of low to modest vertical shear and SSTs of at least 30C along the track should allow for at least slow but steady strengthening. Although the official intensity forecast shows weakening at 72 hours, this is due to the system expected to be inland at that time. Conditions will favorable for continued strengthening after the 48-h period until landfall occurs, and a peak intensity of around 55 kt around 60 hours is possible. The SHIPS and LGEM models were the only intensity guidance available for this package, and the official forecast is just a little below an average of those models. The HWRF and HMON models will be forthcoming for the next advisory package, so some adjustments to this first intensity forecast may be required as more guidance becomes available. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. 2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in those areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this system will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this week, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall from a different weather system. Interests in these areas should monitor products from their local National Weather Service office. 3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential tropical cylones is generally larger than that for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 22.7N 77.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0600Z 23.7N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 03/1800Z 25.1N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 26.6N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 28.0N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 30.6N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 33.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1800Z 34.0N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Graphics
2018-09-02 22:44:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 20:44:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 20:44:35 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-02 22:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 930 FONT12 KNHC 022042 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 02 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 1 26(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MARATHON FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 19(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NAPLES FL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) X(25) X(25) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 14(55) X(55) X(55) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) X(23) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 1(33) 1(34) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 3(35) X(35) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) X(34) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 19(41) X(41) 1(42) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) 1(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 3(34) X(34) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) 1(23) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 4(29) 1(30) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 3(27) X(27) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 1(21) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) X(23) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) 1(24) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) 1(18) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) 1(21) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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