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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-09-03 04:52:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 854 FONT12 KNHC 030252 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 15(15) 33(48) 2(50) 1(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) X(24) X(24) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 25(36) X(36) X(36) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20(37) X(37) 1(38) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) 1(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) 1(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) X(31) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) 1(29) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) X(23) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 1(22) 1(23) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 1(16) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven (AT2/AL072018)
2018-09-03 04:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 the center of Seven was located near 23.4, -78.7 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Public Advisory Number 2
2018-09-03 04:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 204 WTNT32 KNHC 030251 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 78.7W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the north-central Gulf coast from the Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 78.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or the southern portion of the Florida peninsula Monday, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm Monday night. Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical cyclone by Monday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Destin Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...1 to 2 ft. Mississippi-Alabama border to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flooding. The disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be possible Monday across portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-09-03 04:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 360 WTNT22 KNHC 030251 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY... LOUISIANA... INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 78.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 78.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.5N 80.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.9N 83.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.5N 86.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 28.8N 88.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.7N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 33.2N 94.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 34.2N 95.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 78.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Graphics
2018-09-03 01:47:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 23:47:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Sep 2018 21:28:22 GMT
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