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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2018-08-31 10:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 08:38:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 09:22:06 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-31 10:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 322 WTNT41 KNHC 310836 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 Even though the circulation is gradually becoming less elongated, there is still relatively little deep convection near the estimated center of circulation. Instead, most of the convection remains confined to the monsoon trough southwest of the center, where low-level convergence is strongest. Therefore, the system is not quite yet being designated as a tropical cyclone. Global model fields suggest that the low should detach from the monsoon trough within the next 12 hours, which would likely allow deep convection to form closer to the center. Assuming that happens, the system is also forecast to strengthen and become a tropical storm by this afternoon while it approaches the southern Cabo Verde Islands. Although vertical shear is expected to be relatively light for much of the forecast period, sea surface temperatures ahead of the system are marginal, and the low will likely move over a minimum of oceanic heat content in 48-72 hours. Adding on top of that a drier mid-level environment, only gradual strengthening is anticipated through day 5. A majority of the intensity models agree on this scenario, with the exception of the HWRF model, which brings the system close to major hurricane strength at the end of the forecast period. Since that solution is discounted at the moment, the NHC intensity forecast is below the HCCA guidance and closest to the intensity consensus. The low appears to have turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of 285/10 kt. A mid-level high centered west of the Canary Islands should continue to steer the disturbance west-northwestward at a faster clip for the next 4 days or so. By the end of the forecast period, a weakness in the ridge over the eastern Atlantic could cause the system to turn northwestward. The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one during the first 72 hours and then a little to the west on days 4 and 5 to better match the latest guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 13.6N 21.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/1800Z 14.2N 23.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 01/0600Z 14.8N 25.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 15.5N 28.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 16.2N 30.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 17.4N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 19.0N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 21.5N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062018)
2018-08-31 10:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 31 the center of Six was located near 13.6, -21.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 4
2018-08-31 10:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 021 WTNT31 KNHC 310836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 21.4W ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 21.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to continue for the next three to four days. On the forecast track, disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical storm later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-08-31 10:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 030 FONT11 KNHC 310836 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PRAIA CVI 34 10 23(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SANTA MARIA CV 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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