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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 5A
2018-08-31 19:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 532 WTNT31 KNHC 311731 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 200 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 ...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 23.3W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 23.3 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next three to four days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to continue moving near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical storm later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or Saturday. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2018-08-31 16:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 14:39:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Aug 2018 15:22:06 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062018)
2018-08-31 16:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...A TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT FORMED YET BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 31 the center of Six was located near 13.7, -22.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 5
2018-08-31 16:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 175 WTNT31 KNHC 311437 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 ...A TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT FORMED YET BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 22.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 22.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to continue for the next three to four days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical storm later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or Saturday. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-31 16:37:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 176 WTNT41 KNHC 311437 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 The circulation is better defined this morning, but the associated convection is rather weak. In fact, Dvorak numbers have not changed overall, and do not support classifying the system as a tropical cyclone yet. It seems like both NHC and the global models predicted the development of a cyclone too soon. Nevertheless, the environmental conditions are favorable for both genesis and strengthening, and a tropical depression or a storm is expected to form later today or Saturday. The shear does not appear to be a problem at this time, but the cyclone should be moving over marginal SSTs, limiting the amount of intensification. The HWRF model changed its tune to a more reasonable one, and it now shows more modest strengthening. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and continues to be very close to the intensity consensus. The disturbance is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 11 kt. The subtropical high should continue to steer the system toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the ridge will induce a more northwestward track over the open Atlantic Ocean. This is supported by the track guidance which continues to be in very good agreement for the next 3 days. Thereafter, the guidance envelope widens and becomes bounded by the westernmost ECMWF and the easternmost GFS models decreasing the confidence in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 13.7N 22.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 01/0000Z 14.1N 24.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 01/1200Z 14.8N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 15.5N 29.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 16.2N 32.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.5N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 22.0N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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