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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-07-29 10:44:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 256 WTNT24 KNHC 290844 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND... LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO CABO CAUCEDO * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.3W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.3W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.3N 64.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...220NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.8N 67.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.3N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 30SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.6N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.1N 76.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.3N 78.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 25.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 28.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 61.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2020-07-29 07:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 05:41:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 03:24:53 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-29 07:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Jul 29 the center of Nine was located near 14.9, -60.3 with movement WNW at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-07-29 07:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290541 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 60.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominica * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Cabo Caucedo * Turks and Caicos Islands Interests elsewhere in the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 60.3 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move through the southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm today. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km), north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands during the next few hours, and spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. Rainfall is also expected in the following locations: Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These dangerous conditions are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2020-07-29 04:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 02:54:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 02:54:53 GMT
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