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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2020-07-29 04:53:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 290253 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 14(33) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 14(33) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 12(38) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) 10(41) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 25(35) 9(44) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 8(32) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 8(32) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 6(38) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 5(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 9(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 11(29) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 13(32) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 6(36) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 13(38) 2(40) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 12(48) 1(49) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 38(43) 3(46) X(46) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 21(27) 2(29) X(29) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 16(43) 1(44) X(44) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 27(27) 20(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 53(53) 9(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 42(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 X 40(40) 28(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) PONCE PR 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 34(34) 42(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 52(52) 24(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 1 77(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) VIEQUES PR 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 75(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 2 82(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SAINT CROIX 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT MAARTEN 34 14 51(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SABA 34 29 56(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ST EUSTATIUS 34 49 37(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 67 21(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BARBUDA 34 63 9(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ANTIGUA 34 84 4(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GUADELOUPE 34 90 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GUADELOUPE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 20 12(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) DOMINICA 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) DOMINICA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 11 X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 3

2020-07-29 04:53:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290253 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 59.4W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Turks and Caicos Islands. The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of its country from the border with Haiti eastward to Punta Caucedo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominica * Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Punta Caucedo * Turks and Caicos Islands Interests elsewhere in the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 59.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning, and spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. Rainfall is also expected in the following locations: Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-07-29 04:53:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290253 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 Earlier wind data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft and a recent 0038Z ASCAT-A overpass indicate that the disturbance has not become any better organized since the previous advisory. There were indications of a circulation center located near the position estimate used in this advisory. However, there was a sharp cusp noted in the ASCAT wind field, and that was used for positioning the disturbance since it lies closest to the strong convective band and best upper-level divergence. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on several ASCAT wind vectors of 35-36 kt located well north of the center. The 35-kt intensity is also consistent with a 0000Z TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/22 kt. The ridge to the north of the disturbance is forecast to remain strong for the next 36-48 h, which keeps the system moving in a general west-northwestward direction across the Lesser Antilles tonight and Wednesday, and near or over the Greater Antilles Wednesday night and Thursday. For such a loosely organized system at this time, the models are in fairly good agreement on the large disturbance slowing down significantly after 48 h, reaching forward speeds of only 10-12 kt when it reaches the very warm waters of the Straits of Florida in 72-96 h. On days 4 and 5, the system is expected to slow even further and turn northward into a break in the subtropical ridge that is expected to develop across Florida and the Bahamas. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more westward initial position, and lies along the southern portion of the guidance envelope near the middle of the consensus models. Regardless of the exact track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours. The intensity forecast remains problematic for primarily two reasons: 1) the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field and 2) likely land interaction to some degree. In the short-term, a bonafide center could develop tonight in response to the expected development of intense convection caused by orographic forcing by the mountainous islands of the central and northern Leeward Islands. Once a center closes off, which has likely been inhibited from doing so due to the disturbance's fast forward speed in excess of 20 kt, the low-level convergence will improve and convection will become more organized and symmetrical, allowing for strengthening to occur. The main question is how much land interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will disrupt the circulation in the 36-48-hour period. Assuming the system remains intact after emerging off the coast of Hispaniola, the slow track over the very warm waters of the Straits of Florida would result in more strengthening, assuming the system doesn't interact with the Cuban landmass. Although the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations. As a result, this is not being considered a negative intensity factor compared to land interaction. Due to aforementioned uncertainties, the new NHC intensity forecast remains on the conservative side, and lies between the slightly weaker IVCN and stronger NOAA-HCCA consensus models. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both the track and intensity are likely. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Dominican Republic beginning Wednesday and spreading westward through Thursday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and it could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 14.6N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/1200Z 15.7N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 17.4N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 18.7N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0000Z 20.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 22.8N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 25.7N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 120H 03/0000Z 27.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-07-29 04:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290252 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ITS COUNTRY FROM THE BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO PUNTA CAUCEDO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUNTA CAUCEDO * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 59.4W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 59.4W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 58.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.7N 62.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.4N 65.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.7N 69.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 60SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.1N 72.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 77.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 25.7N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 27.9N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 59.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics

2020-07-29 02:05:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 00:05:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Jul 2020 23:48:06 GMT

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