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Remnants of SONIA Public Advisory Number 14

2013-11-04 15:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041430 TCPEP3 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 700 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013 ...SONIA DISSIPATES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 106.5W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF SONIA HAS DISSIPATED. AT 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF SONIA WERE ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM SONIA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAINFALL OVER MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SONIA. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Remnants of SONIA Forecast Advisory Number 14

2013-11-04 15:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 041430 TCMEP3 REMNANTS OF SONIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 1500 UTC MON NOV 04 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 106.5W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 106.5W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 106.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SONIA. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Remnants of KAREN Graphics

2013-10-06 17:08:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2013 14:33:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2013 15:04:46 GMT

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Remnants of KAREN Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-10-06 16:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 061432 TCDAT2 REMNANTS OF KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013 EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF KAREN HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. AS A RESULT...KAREN IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN HAVE BEEN MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING AT AROUND 11 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT UNTIL THEY ARE OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT IN A DAY OR SO. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANT CENTER...AND REGENERATON IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO EVEN HIGHER VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CAN FIND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 28.1N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Remnants of KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2013-10-06 16:31:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 061431 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1500 UTC SUN OCT 06 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND NA NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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