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Tropical Storm Lane Public Advisory Number 6
2018-08-16 10:50:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 544 WTPZ34 KNHC 160850 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 ...LANE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.4N 126.4W ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 126.4 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. A slight turn toward the west-northwest is expected by the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and Lane is forecast to become a hurricane later today, and a major hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-08-16 10:50:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 543 WTPZ24 KNHC 160850 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0900 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 126.4W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 126.4W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 125.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.6N 128.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.9N 131.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.4N 133.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.8N 136.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.1N 141.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.4N 146.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 15.1N 150.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Lane Graphics
2018-08-16 04:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 02:35:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Aug 2018 03:28:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-16 04:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 231 WTPZ44 KNHC 160233 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Overall, Lane's cloud pattern has become a little better organized this evening. Modest east-northeasterly shear, however, along with some drier air, appears to be undercutting the diffluent outflow above 300 mb and is impinging the north through northeast portion of the cyclone. An outer deep convective curved band, on the other hand, is now developing over most of the eastern half of the system. The surface center is also located a bit further in the northern edge of an expanding, colder, central dense overcast. The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt, and is based on a compromise of the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates (T3.0), and a 2205 UTC SATCON analysis (51 kt). Little change has been made to the previous intensity forecast, and it still shows a rapid increase of nearly 55 kt in 48 hours based on the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification Index (DTOPS) which indicates a 67 percent chance of RI occuring during this particular period. The NHC forecast is weighed heavily on a blend of the COAMPS-TC and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model (HCCA), and indicates Lane intensifying into a category 3 hurricane in 3 days. Lane's motion is estimated to be westward, or 265/11 kt, a little to the left of due west, and is being steered by a broad mid-level ridge to its north-northwest. The large-scale models continue to show the ridge weakening in 2 days in response to a southwestward and westward retrograding cut-off mid-level low currently located southwest of the Baja California coast. At that time, the cyclone should gradually turn west-northwestward and continue in this general direction through the remaining period of the forecast. The official forecast is very close to the previous one, with only minor along-track adjustments, and sides with the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 10.4N 125.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 10.4N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 10.7N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 11.1N 132.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 11.6N 135.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 14.3N 145.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 15.2N 149.3W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-08-16 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 546 FOPZ14 KNHC 160233 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 130W 34 X 53(53) 16(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 10N 130W 50 X 18(18) 12(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 10N 130W 64 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 6(42) X(42) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 58(60) 11(71) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 10(43) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 8(27) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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