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Summary for Tropical Storm Lane (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-15 22:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LANE INTENSIFYING, FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 the center of Lane was located near 10.6, -124.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lane Public Advisory Number 4
2018-08-15 22:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 216 WTPZ34 KNHC 152034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 ...LANE INTENSIFYING, FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 124.5W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 124.5 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lane is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday and a major hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-08-15 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 589 WTPZ24 KNHC 152033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM LANE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 124.5W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 124.5W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.5N 126.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.7N 128.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.6N 133.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.6N 138.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.0N 143.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.2N 148.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Lane Graphics
2018-08-15 16:52:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 14:52:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 14:52:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-08-15 16:52:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 781 WTPZ44 KNHC 151452 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 The latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone continues to become better organized with a growing central dense overcast along with ample banding features. Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, and with the increased organization since the last advisory, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. Further intensification is likely over the next few days as Lane encounters a conducive large-scale environment consisting of low shear and fairly warm waters. Rapid strengthening is a distinct possibility after the cyclone forms an inner core, which could take a day or so given that there is still some drier air in the eastern semicircle. The DTOPS rapid intensification index indicates a high probability of significant strengthening over the next 3 days, with over a 70 percent chance of a 65-kt increase during that time. Given that some of the guidance (FSSE and HMON) are even higher than that, this seems like a reasonable forecast and is indicated below. The new NHC forecast is raised from the last advisory, and is close to a blend of the previous forecast and the corrected-consensus guidance. Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems destined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector. The storm continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane is forecast to weaken slightly over the next few days, which will likely steer the cyclone to the west or west-northwest throughout the period. There is very little spread in the guidance, with the most notable change since the last advisory being a small shift to the southwest. The latest official track forecast is adjusted in that direction, and is not too far from the latest model consensus. Given the tightly packed guidance, this appears to be a high-confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 10.7N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 10.6N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 10.7N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 11.0N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 11.5N 132.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 12.6N 137.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 13.9N 142.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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