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Summary for Tropical Storm Lane (EP4/EP142018)
2018-08-16 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LANE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 the center of Lane was located near 10.4, -125.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lane Public Advisory Number 5
2018-08-16 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 843 WTPZ34 KNHC 160232 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lane Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 ...LANE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.4N 125.6W ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lane was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 125.6 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected, and Lane is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, and a major hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Lane Graphics
2018-08-15 22:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 20:36:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Aug 2018 20:36:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-15 22:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 592 WTPZ44 KNHC 152034 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 Satellite images indicate that Lane is strengthening. The central dense overcast continues to grow, with a large banding feature in the western semicircle and expanding outflow in most quadrants. ASCAT data recently showed maximum winds of about 40 kt, so that will be the initial wind speed, which is also near a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. While the latest microwave data indicate that the inner core of Lane remains loosely organized, the large-scale environment appears to be favorable for intensification. Low shear, warm waters of 27.5-28C, and moderate levels of mid-level moisture all support strengthening at a higher rate than climatology. However, since the inner core is not well established yet, the intensity forecast will be held just below rapid strengthening (30 kt in 24 h) for day 1. There is still a strong signal for that threshold to be met in the day 2-3 period from the DTOPS rapid intensification index, so the forecast will remain for a major hurricane to form during that time. This forecast is close to a blend of the latest NOAA-HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus models. The storm continues to move just south of due west, now at about 11 kt. The synoptic pattern is well established with a subtropical ridge expected to only slightly weaken in the medium-range period, causing a slight west-northwestward turn in the central Pacific. While the overall spread has increased in the 1200 UTC guidance, the latest model consensus has barely budged since the previous advisory, although it does fit the recent westward trend. The latest official track forecast is again adjusted in that direction, close to the eastern Pacific track model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 10.6N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 10.5N 126.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 10.7N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 11.6N 133.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 12.6N 138.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 14.0N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 15.2N 148.2W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Lane Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-08-15 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 287 FOPZ14 KNHC 152034 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM LANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 2100 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LANE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 10N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 51(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 18(39) X(39) X(39) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) 10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 27(48) 2(50) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 28(65) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 21(37) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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