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Tropical Depression SIX-E Graphics
2017-07-12 04:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Jul 2017 02:41:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Jul 2017 03:32:25 GMT
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-07-12 04:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120235 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Convection associated with the low pressure area located well south of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized this afternoon and evening, with recent microwave images showing a well-defined curved band wrapping around the western portion of the circulation. Based on the improvement in organization, the system is being classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates of 25 and 35 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The depression is currently in an environment of light northeasterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. Although the global models do not show significant deepening, the statistical guidance (SHIPS and LGEM) and regional hurricane models (HWRF and CTCX) predict steady strengthening, with the regional models making the system a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period. Given the low shear and warm waters ahead, the NHC forecast calls for steady intensification and lies close to HCCA consensus model. The depression is moving westward at about 10 kt. A large mid- to upper-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to build westward over the next several days. This should keep the cyclone on a general westward heading throughout the five-day forecast period. The models are in good agreement on the steering pattern and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 12.2N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 12.2N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 12.2N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 12.3N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 12.4N 117.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 12.5N 127.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 12.5N 132.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-07-12 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062017 0300 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 2(27) X(27) 10N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 1(31) X(31) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 2(29) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) 10N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 2(36) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX-E (EP1/EP062017)
2017-07-12 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 the center of SIX-E was located near 12.2, -109.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX-E Public Advisory Number 1
2017-07-12 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 109.9W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 109.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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