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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-07-07 11:04:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070903 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 Corrected to show dissipated at 10/0600Z Dry air appears to be taking its toll on Cosme. Deep convection mostly dissipated earlier tonight and water vapor imagery shows very dry air impinging on the northwestern side of the cyclone, and wrapping into the southern semicircle of the circulation. There has been some new convection developing about 100 n mi northeast of the center over the past few hours, which is likely associated with the approaching diurnal convective maximum time period. A recent scatterometer pass that partially captured Cosme's wind field indicated weakening had occurred over the western portion of the cyclone over the past several hours which suggests that an overall weakening trend has begun. Therefore the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt and this is in agreement with the latest TAFB and ADT satellite intensity estimates. Cosme will continue to battle dry air while moving over marginally favorable SSTs today. There is a chance for the regenerating convection to expand toward the cyclone's center over the next several hours, thus prolonging the time Cosme will remain a tropical storm. However, later today the cyclone will begin to cross the 26 C isotherm and also will enter an even drier environment. This should cause Cosme to weaken to a tropical depression. Thereafter, the dry air and cooler SSTs will cause Cosme to become devoid of deep convection and the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low either by tonight, or on Monday. The latest official intensity forecast shows a weakening trend that is a little faster than previously forecast, and is in agreement with the latest intensity guidance as well as model simulated satellite imagery. Cosme continues on a generally west-northwest track, and has slowed slightly to around 9 kt. The cyclone will be steered toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge developing to its northwest over the next couple of days while gradually decreasing in forward speed. The latest track guidance is close to the previous forecast and near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.9N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.4N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 19.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0600Z 19.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-07-07 11:03:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 070902 CCA TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019 CORRECTED OUTLOOK DATE/TIME FROM 12/0600Z TO 10/0600Z THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.0W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.0W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.4N 120.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.1N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 118.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
2019-07-07 10:47:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2019 08:47:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2019 09:24:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-07-07 10:45:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 070845 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Cosme (EP3/EP032019)
2019-07-07 10:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME WEAKENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 the center of Cosme was located near 16.9, -118.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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