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Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 4
2019-07-07 10:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 070844 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 ...COSME WEAKENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 118.0W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 118.0 West. Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a west-northwest to northwest motion is expected the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days and Cosme is expected to become a tropical depression later today, and a remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
2019-07-07 04:37:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2019 02:37:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2019 03:24:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-07-07 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 There has been little overall change in the tropical storm's organization since the previous advisory. Deep convection continues to burst over the northeastern portion of Cosme's circulation, however it remains well removed from the center. The initial wind speed has been maintained at 45 kt, which is based on earlier ASCAT data and is still above the most recent Dvorak intensity estimates. It appears that Cosme is unlikely to strengthen any more. Dry air to the northwest of the cyclone and the sprawling structure of the system should hinder intensification while the system moves over 26-27 degree Celsius water during the next 12-18 hours. After that time, Cosme will reach cooler SSTs and gradual weakening should begin, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical within a couple of days, if not sooner. The updated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest statistical guidance and the various consensus aids. Visible satellite imagery has revealed several cloud swirls rotating within the storm's circulation, which has made tracking the center of the system a little more difficult than usual. Using a mean center of the various swirls yields an initial motion estimate of 300/10 kt. Cosme should continue to be steered west-northwestward during the next 12-24 hours by a mid-level ridge extending westward from northwestern Mexico. By Monday, the western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken which should induce a slower northwestward motion. Later in the period, the remnant low should turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest within the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance envelope did not change much this cycle and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.7N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.3N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.0N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 21.1N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 21.5N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-07-07 04:32:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 070232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019 0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 3 11(14) 15(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Cosme (EP3/EP032019)
2019-07-07 04:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of Cosme was located near 16.7, -117.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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