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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-07-07 16:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 071433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 After a brief convective hiatus overnight, a small burst of thunderstorms has redeveloped near and to the northeast of the low-level center this morning, making positioning of the tropical cyclone a little difficult. However, convection has been on the wane during the past couple of hours despite relatively low vertical wind shear conditions. The initial intensity has been maintained at 35 kt due to the increase in central convection. The initial position and motion estimate of 305/08 kt are based primarily on passive microwave satellite data. Cosme is forecast to maintain a northwestward to west-northwestward motion over the next few days due to the influence of a deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. A 72-hr post-tropical position was added due to the global models now hanging on to a closed surface low a little bit longer. Otherwise, the new NHC forecast track is similar to but north of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more northward initial position, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA and the simple consensus models. Cosme is moving over over marginal 26-deg-C SSTs, and the water beneath the cyclone is forecast to cool to near 25C in about 24 hours. The unfavorable oceanic conditions, combined with the entrainment of drier and more stable low- and mid-level air, should result in complete loss of deep convection near the center by Monday. As a result, Cosme is forecast to become a depression later today, degenerate into post-tropical remnant low on Monday, and dissipate in the 72-96 hour time period. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.7N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 18.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 19.7N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 21.2N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cosme (EP3/EP032019)
2019-07-07 16:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 the center of Cosme was located near 17.7, -118.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 5
2019-07-07 16:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 117 WTPZ33 KNHC 071432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 ...COSME EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 118.4W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 118.4 West. Cosme is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward northwest to west-northwest is expected during the next couple of days accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next 48 hours and Cosme is expected to become a tropical depression later today, and degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-07-07 16:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019 116 WTPZ23 KNHC 071432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 118.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.4N 119.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.1N 120.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.7N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.2N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 118.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-07-07 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 071432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 5 20(25) 4(29) 1(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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