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Tropical Storm COSME Graphics
2013-06-27 17:07:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2013 14:42:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2013 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-06-27 16:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271440 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 COSME HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 22-23C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. BARRING AN UNEXPECTED RETURN OF THE CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY DECAYS TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 120 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/14. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 20.4N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.9N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 21.4N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 21.5N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 22.0N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2013-06-27 16:40:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271440 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 16 19 30 34 34 NA TROP DEPRESSION 64 56 47 44 44 46 NA TROPICAL STORM 34 28 33 25 22 20 NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-27 16:40:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 the center of COSME was located near 20.4, -120.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm COSME Public Advisory Number 17
2013-06-27 16:40:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271440 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 ...COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 120.9W ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH COSME HAS DISSIPATED...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ACAPULCO TO LOS MOCHIS...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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