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Tropical Storm COSME Public Advisory Number 15
2013-06-27 04:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 270233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 ...COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 117.6W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST. COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND COSME SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ACAPULCO TO LOS MOCHIS...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-06-27 04:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 270233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 0300 UTC THU JUN 27 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 15 20 32 35 35 34 TROP DEPRESSION 32 58 46 41 43 45 48 TROPICAL STORM 66 26 32 26 22 19 18 HURRICANE 1 1 2 2 1 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 X HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm COSME Graphics
2013-06-26 23:07:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2013 20:35:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jun 2013 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm COSME Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-06-26 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262033 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013 COSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A COMBINATION OF CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED...AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY AND THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THAT TIME. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY CONSTRAINED BY THE DECAY RULES OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF COSME SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. SOME DECELERATION MAY OCCUR AROUND 96-120 HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF COSME APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. COSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 21C-24C. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A CONVECTIONLESS REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.3N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 19.9N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 21.6N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z 21.9N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 22.0N 135.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm COSME Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2013-06-26 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 262032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 2100 UTC WED JUN 26 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 14 22 36 36 35 TROP DEPRESSION 5 37 41 44 43 45 48 TROPICAL STORM 92 55 42 32 20 19 17 HURRICANE 3 3 3 2 1 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 3 3 2 1 X X HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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