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Summary for Tropical Storm Cosme (EP3/EP032019)

2019-07-06 16:00:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...COSME FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of Cosme was located near 15.6, -115.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 1

2019-07-06 16:00:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 061400 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 06 2019 ...COSME FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 115.7W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 115.7 West. Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the northwest on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, with some weakening anticipated by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2019-07-06 16:00:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 061400 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019 1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 8(13) 7(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 1

2019-07-06 16:00:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 061400 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032019 1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.7W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 80SE 0SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.7W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 117.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 119.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 120.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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