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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-05-28 04:41:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 280241 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 0300 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CRYSTAL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.8W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.8W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 85.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.6N 86.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.2N 86.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.3N 87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 35.8N 87.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 41.5N 87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 46.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 11
2018-05-28 02:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280056 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Special Advisory Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 Corrected Albert to Alberto in intensity paragraph ...ALBERTO STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 730 PM CDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 85.7W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 730 PM CDT (0030 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwest to north-northwest motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected overnight. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and cross the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional strengthening is expected before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday night or Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20-25 inches. The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 10 inches. Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the warning area tonight and continue through Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight across the central and northern Florida peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-05-28 02:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0100 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 280028 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 0100 UTC MON MAY 28 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CRYSTAL RIVER TO NAVARRE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.7W AT 28/0030Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.7W AT 28/0030Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 85.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics
2018-05-28 02:42:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 00:42:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 May 2018 00:42:19 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-05-28 02:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280038 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Alberto Special Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 This special advisory is being issued to show that, based on observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, that Alberto strengthened to an intensity of 55 kt. Based on this, the intensity forecast through 24 hours is revised upward. No change has been made to the track forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday. Heavy rain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida Panhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle into much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through Tuesday. 2. A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow. 4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0030Z 28.4N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 28/0600Z 29.1N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 28/1800Z 30.4N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 32.2N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 34.7N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 39.7N 86.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1800Z 45.1N 83.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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