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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 44
2019-09-23 10:59:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230859 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 GOES-17 enhance infrared imagery and an earlier METOP-A AMSU pass show that resilient Kiko is producing intermittent bursts of deep convection with associated -77C cold cloud tops near the surface center. These convective bursts, based on the TAFB and SAB intensity estimates, are substantial enough to maintain its tropical storm status of 35 kt for this advisory. Both the ECMWF and FV3GFS Decay SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models show Kiko briefly re-strengthening as it continues moving over warm SSTs and in a favorable upper-level wind environment. By Tuesday afternoon, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low in less than 3 days with dissipation occuring by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/8 kt, just south of due west. Kiko is expected to turn westward to west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the cyclone. At the 72 hour period, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow remnant low, Kiko should, once again, turn back toward the southwest within the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and based on a blend of the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 15.5N 135.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 15.8N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 19.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 19.3N 142.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 18.2N 143.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2019-09-23 10:44:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230844 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-23 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:37:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2019 08:37:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-23 10:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... ...SOME STRENGTHENING LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Sep 22 the center of Kiko was located near 15.5, -135.3 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 44
2019-09-23 10:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...KIKO MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... ...SOME STRENGTHENING LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 135.3W ABOUT 1730 MI...2785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 135.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west to west-northwest is expected Monday followed by a turn toward the northwest by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-strengthening could begin later tonight or on Monday, but it is forecast to be short-lived with weakening commencing on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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