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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2019-09-23 04:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 21 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 135W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 12(22) 1(23) 1(24) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 43
2019-09-23 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 134.5W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 15NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 134.5W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 134.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.7N 138.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.6N 139.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 141.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 17.1N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 134.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-22 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 20:36:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 21:39:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 42
2019-09-22 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 Not much can be added to Kiko after nearly 10 days describing the cyclone. It still consists of a tight circulation of low clouds with intermittent bursts of deep convection. Based on Dvorak estimates the initial intensity is kept at 35 kts. Kiko has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit in one of those burst, but the general trend is for Kiko to weaken and become a remnant low as it crosses the end of our domain. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest at 6 knots steered by the subtropical ridge and its associated trades. Kiko will continue swinging south of west and north of due west as the subtropical high pulses during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.1N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
2019-09-22 22:34:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 222034 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 6 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 2(21) 1(22) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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