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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 45
2019-09-23 16:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Kiko's convection has dramatically increased this morning, and satellite intensity estimates have increased in turn. The initial intensity is back up to 45 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective fixes that range from 40 to 55 kt. Kiko's small size is likely making it particularly susceptible to short-term intensity fluctuations, so it is unclear at this time how long this upward trend will continue. It appears that the tropical storm has a chance to intensify some more today while it is located in a relatively low shear environment and over warm SSTs. However, the global models indicate that strong southwesterly shear will once again affect the cyclone in about 24 h, and weakening is still anticipated from that time onward. The dynamical models all show Kiko becoming a post-tropical remnant low in about 72 h, and it could dissipate a couple of days after that. The NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance at 12 h, but closely follows the intensity consensus through the rest of the forecast period. Kiko appears to have turned west-northwestward and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 285/7 kt. The models are in good agreement that Kiko will move generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next couple of days as the subtropical ridge weakens yet again. Around 72 h, Kiko is forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward as it is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and closely follows the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 15.7N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.4N 136.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.6N 138.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 19.0N 139.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.7N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45
2019-09-23 16:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231443 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 8(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-23 16:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO RESTRENGTHENS AS IT INCHES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Sep 23 the center of Kiko was located near 15.7, -135.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 45
2019-09-23 16:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KIKO RESTRENGTHENS AS IT INCHES CLOSER TO THE END OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 135.8W ABOUT 1755 MI...2825 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 135.8 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Kiko could begin to turn back toward the west in a few days as it weakens. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, but weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 45
2019-09-23 16:42:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 135.8W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 135.8W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.4N 136.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.6N 138.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N 139.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.6N 140.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.7N 143.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.3N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 135.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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