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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 48
2019-09-24 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240838 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KIKO HOPEFULLY ON THE WAY TO ITS FINAL DEMISE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 138.2W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 138.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn to the west-northwest then west is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Kiko is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48
2019-09-24 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240838 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 1 16(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 48
2019-09-24 10:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240837 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 138.2W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 138.2W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 137.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 139.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.4N 140.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.7N 142.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.5N 143.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 138.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-24 04:40:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 02:40:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 02:40:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 47
2019-09-24 04:39:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240239 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Earlier this afternoon, infrared satellite imagery showed the initial presence of an eye developing. Since that time, the gradient of the convection has become sharp over the southwestern semicircle, with that cirrus clouds now covering the eye-like feature. This suggests that the anticipated southerly shear over the cyclone could be beginning. The initial intensity remains at 50 kt, and this is based off a combination of the available subjective and objective intensity estimates. Kiko is moving northwestward at 10 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. Kiko is expected to turn to the northwest tonight, and that motion should continue through Tuesday in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to its west. By Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west as the shallower system is steered by the the low-level trade winds. Based on the current forecast track, Kiko is expected to enter the central Pacific basin by tomorrow night. Since it now appears that the shear is beginning to occur over the storm, the forecast no longer calls for any additional strengthening. The southerly shear is expected to increase much more tomorrow, and the system should begin to entrain dry and stable marine air to its west. This is expected to cause a weakening trend to begin, and by Wednesday, Kiko is expected to become a tropical depression, and it will likely become a remnant low shortly thereafter. Other than removing the near term intensification, the official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 17.0N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 18.0N 138.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.7N 141.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 19.8N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 19.5N 146.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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