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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47
2019-09-24 04:38:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240238 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X 20(20) 12(32) 2(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) 20N 140W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-24 04:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Sep 23 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -137.5 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 47
2019-09-24 04:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240237 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...KIKO EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 137.5W ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 137.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the west-northwest then west is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. A weakening trend is forecast to begin on Tuesday, and Kiko should weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday, and degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 47
2019-09-24 04:38:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240237 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 137.5W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 137.5W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 137.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 138.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.7N 141.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.8N 142.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 137.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 46
2019-09-23 22:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232031 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Not only does Kiko refuse to go away, but satellite images indicate that the cyclone is strengthening. Recent microwave images reveal that the inner core of the storm is a little better organized than it was earlier, and accordingly, the latest satellite intensity estimates have increased this cycle. A blend of the objective and subjective satellite estimates yield an intensity of about 50 kt. Hopefully ASCAT data will provide more information about the cyclone's intensity and size later today. Kiko is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur by tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday as the system moves in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to its west. On Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west or west-southwest as the shallow system moves in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on the current forecast track, Kiko is expected to enter the central Pacific basin in about 36 hours. The tropical storm could strengthen a little more through tonight, but a significant increase in southerly shear and drier air should cause a steady weakening trend to begin on Tuesday. Kiko is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Wednesday, and it will likely become a remnant low shortly thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 19.1N 140.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 19.5N 141.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 19.2N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z 19.0N 145.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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