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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 22
2018-08-06 01:53:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 385 WTPZ35 KNHC 052353 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Special Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 ...HECTOR CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 138.6W ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hector. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 138.6 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with some increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Hector will cross into the central Pacific basin tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Hector is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight and Monday. After that, gradual weakening is expected Monday night through Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.96 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 22
2018-08-06 01:52:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0000 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 022 WTPZ25 KNHC 052352 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0000 UTC MON AUG 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HECTOR. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 138.6W AT 06/0000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 138.6W AT 06/0000Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 137.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 142.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.9N 145.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 148.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 17.0N 160.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.7N 166.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 138.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Hector Graphics
2018-08-05 22:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 20:53:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 21:26:29 GMT
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-08-05 22:51:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 141 WTPZ45 KNHC 052051 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Hector continues to exhibit an impressive satellite presentation. A 1559 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass suggests that Hector likely completed an eyewall replacement since this morning, with the eye becoming better defined. Both conventional satellite imagery and the aforementioned microwave data show little in the way of banding outside of the symmetric CDO, suggesting that Hector has some characteristics of an annular hurricane. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW/CIMSS objective estimates are up to T6.1 or 117 kt. As result, the initial wind speed is increased to 115 kt, making Hector a category 4 hurricane once again. Hector is forecast to remain within very low vertical wind shear while it traverses SSTs of around 27C during much of the forecast period. However, the hurricane will be moving into an area of drier mid-level air which is likely to induce some weakening later in the forecast period. Given Hector's annular-like structure, the NHC intensity forecast shows a more gradual rate of weakening since annular hurricanes tend to be more stable and weaken more slowly. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, HCCA. The hurricane continues moving westward or 275/11 kt. There is been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Hector is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward during the next day or so to the south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to strengthen to the north of the Hawaiian Islands by mid-week which is expected to turn the hurricane westward. The models continue to be in good agreement on this general scenario but some cross-track spread remains. The NHC forecast is once again near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus models. The NOAA G-IV aircraft will be releasing dropsondes as it circumnavigates Hector during its flight to Hawaii to support forecast operations over the next few days. Data from these dropsondes should be incorporated into this evening's 0000 UTC dynamical models. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the Hawaiian Islands. It is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.4N 138.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.3N 142.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.9N 145.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 148.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 17.0N 160.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 17.7N 166.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-05 22:50:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 5 the center of Hector was located near 14.4, -138.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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